As I write this, Spanish police are cracking peoples' heads with batons and shooting them with rubber bullets in the Catalonia region. More than 300 people have already been hurt (now 460 and rising). I fear this is only the beginning of an ongoing sequence of violence in the region. Certainly there will be strikes. Vandalism. Quite likely terrorist-type attacks against the Spanish oppressors. Possible a full-scale revolution / civil war. This in a so-called democracy.
Unlike the Catalans, Scotland was "permitted" to hold a vote on independence. Then the Tory-led UK government broadcast a series of lies and held out a package of promises they never intended to keep, and the Scots sheepishly voted no. But at least they voted, even if they were not adequately informed. Now, post-Brexit, Britain's declaration of quasi-independence from the ineffectual European Union, they may call for another vote.
We recently watched the HBO series on John Adams, which focused on the US Declaration of Independence and the subsequent American Revolution from the viewpoint of my namesake (and likely ancestor, according to my brother's research). King George opted for a heavy hand, much like Spain's PM Rahoy, and it cost Georgie the colonies.
Yet, despite the obvious parallels with America's own experience, President Donald voiced support for preventing the Catalans from their right of self-determination. I suspect he has, or would like to have, business interests in Spain. I also suspect he doesn't even know where Catalonia is on the map.
We can see Catalonia from our house in the south of France. Literally, Sarah. About 10 miles to our south is the ridgeline of the Pyrennees, including the last two remaining frontier watchtowers.
If there is war in Catalonia, we can expect many of the independent-minded Catalans to come across the border seeking safety, as hundreds of thousands of their ancestors did during Spain's previous civil war in the 1930s and the repression by fascist Franco.
If Spanish Catalonia does eventually succeed in gaining independence, I wonder if the French Catalonians, our neighbours, will be inclined to join them in the new nation. Certainly there's a lot of anti-French sentiment currently over the redesignation of the region as "Occatania," which essentially ignores the Catalaness of the far south. In our village, the locals have begun adding street signs with the original Catalan names to trumpet their distinct culture.
For the near term, I think we'll avoid venturing over the border because I'm liable to tell the Spanish authorities exactly what I believe about their jackboot style of governance, and I'm sure they won't be too receptive.
Rahoy - whose administration has been highlighted by austerity measures, tax increases, and corruption - has taken the position that the Catalan referendum for independence is illegal, as ruled by their Supreme Court. But how is the desire for liberty illegal? Of what value is binding people to another country by brute force? It didn't work for George III, and I doubt the spirited Catalans will fade quietly into the night with a "well, we tried" shrug.